IntroductionThe birth rate in the United States fell by 2% in 2008. This places the US birth rate slightly at the fertility replacement level, 2.1 births per woman. While some people express concern about the possibility of a shrinking population, others celebrate the sharp decline in teen pregnancies. Preliminary analysis points to the sluggish economy as the reason for the declining birth rate. While there appears to be a correlation between recession and lower birth rates, this does not prove a causal link. To demonstrate causality a theory must be proposed. The Value of Time (VOT) theory of fertility, developed by Gary Becker, states that the demand for children is determined by the value of a wife's time in a family. Over time, numerous pieces of evidence have been collected to support this theory. For example, household surveys show a negative correlation between wages earned by wives and the number of children. And, if we assume that wives are the only ones caring for children, the accumulated evidence showing a positive correlation between the husband's salary and the number of children also supports Becker's theory. However, contrary to Becker's theory, recent trends show that women with lower wages due to the current recession are postponing childbirth while women with higher wages are having children (Stein, 2010). Given this discrepancy between historical data confirming and current data disproving Becker's theory, new studies should consider performing a thorough evaluation of the theory. The model is based on many assumptions that may change in practice depending on the economy, culture and family structure in the country. country to which it is applied. This article evaluates the validity of Becker's hypotheses through the analysis of data on ti...... half of the article ......that women are the only ones caring for children in a family is considered untrue . However, we accept this assumption because we can see that women are the primary providers of child care in families. Second, we check to see whether an increase in the number of children in a household translates into more time spent caring for children. Although weak, we find a positive correlation between the number of children in a family and time spent caring for children. The final test of whether or not non-students spend the same amount of time caring for children as students shows that the assumption that everyone spends the same amount of time caring for children is not true. Without this assumption the application of the theory is limited. Overall, this study constitutes a cursory look at the analysis that can be performed using child care time data to evaluate the VOT fertility theory and should be expanded.
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