Data and methodologyThis section will project the parameters of the economic models through its data sources, sample size and evidently the estimation techniques. This chapter consists of two parts. The first part will present the variables along with the reasoning for their choice. The second part will test the variables through hypothesis testing to ensure a fair degree of adequacy for the regression analysis. Model specification The study takes a comparative approach to examine the effectiveness of fiscal policy in stimulating economic growth in periods of high and/or low economic activity in Brazil. This analysis will initiate a Dicky-Fuller test and an augmented Dicky-Fuller test to ensure adequate data before running the regression (OLS). Secondary data will be collected by the World Bank before being calculated on E-views (econometric software). The hypothesis testing will be validated through the tau test, to affirm the significance of the regression coefficients. (Gujurati 2003), F-test for the overall significance of the model (Patterson and Okafor 2007); (R2) provides information on the goodness of fit of a model (Gujurati 2003) and (Adjusted R2) presents the overall improvement in the significance of the models when new terms are introduced or removed. The review of empirical and theoretical literature establishes the key effective fiscal and non-fiscal components of economic growth based on economic theories. All seven variables analyzed in the literature review are assumed to contribute to Brazil's economic growth. This study will therefore use all these explanatory variables to show their effectiveness for the economy, however in case of strong collinearity, one or two variables will be d...... in the center of the paper ......discharges, and so UP); purchases of plants, machinery and equipment; the construction of roads, railways, including schools, offices, hospitals, private homes, commercial and industrial buildings and net acquisitions of values are also considered investments. (Carvalho 2010) argues that the “Growth Acceleration Plan” (refer to Appendix C) has been Brazil's main contributor to economic growth. Urbanization (% of population) Urban population refers to people living in urban areas as defined by national statistical offices. It is calculated using population estimates from the World Bank and urban ratios from the United Nations World Urbanization Prospects. (Galor, Oded, and David N. Weil. 2000.) Develops a unified growth model that captures the historical evolution of population and technology that produce output growth. This is discussed in depth in Appendix B.
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